Grains mostly higher, After USDA’s highly anticipated acreage reportJuly 3, 2018
Grain futures posted modest gains ahead of a very busy Friday, as investors digest the highly anticipated USDA’s report. Additionally, End-of-the-month and quarter positioning could also come into play with some traders heading for the exit ahead of the Independence Day holiday next week.
In Forecasts, weather played a role in trading as temperatures around the 37-degree Celsius mark raised concerns. However, storms moving through North Dakota this morning will cool off readings a little eventually. Additionally, official 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day forecasts out yesterday remain warm and dry.
Meanwhile, Oil prices fell as supplies from Saudi Arabia, and Russia rose while economic growth struggled in Asia amid an escalating trade dispute with the United States.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil September Futures dropped by 0.50 percent to trade at 73.83 USD per bushel at 10:30 GMT. Additionally, following suit Brent Oil September Futures dropped by 0.98 percent to trade at 78.94 USD per barrel at 10:30 GMT.
CBOT September Wheat Futures are higher getting a lift from lower world production which could finally help the market turn the corner, CBOT September Wheat Futures traded at 4.95/4 USD per bushel at the close of the session on Friday.
The USDA reported that the 2018 winter wheat planted area was at 32.7 million acres, is up less than one percent from last year and up slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 23.2 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.89 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.63 million acres are White Winter.
Hopes for better export demand are giving the market a lift. Export sales last week reported Thursday improved to 20.7 million bushels, above trade guesses and the weekly rate forecast by USDA for the new marketing year.
Volume in winter wheat dropped 30 percent yesterday to 107,501 as July liquidation took 10,523 off open interest despite light new fund selling. Only one lot was put out today against July soft red winter wheat, with the delivery coming in New Madrid, Missouri. The other 10 lots registered are in Toledo, where cash is options to 20 over the board.
CBOT September Corn Futures prices are slowly moving higher today, getting a lift after trading started in Europe on weather concerns. USDA’s stocks and acreage reports are known for producing curveballs, which is also triggering some position squaring from sellers to trade at 3.59/2 USD per bushel at the close of the session.
USDA reported showed that the estimated acreage is at 89.1 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Growers expect to harvest 81.8 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from last year
Furthermore, Export sales from the previous week rebounded to 58.5 million bushels of old and new crop business, ahead of trade guesses and bringing total 2017 crop commitments to 97 percent of USDA’s forecast for the marketing year.
CBOT September Soybeans Futures are higher, holding yesterday’s lows thanks to gains after trading started in Europe despite prospects for bearish reports today to trade at 8.68/4 at the close of the session.
USDA reported that the soybean stocks were a record 1.22 billion bushels up about 257 million bushels from the June 2017 report, as acres were also at 89.54 million which was pretty much expected as we should produce another record crop in the United States in 2018.
Trade conflicts also remain a concern. Export sales last week reported Thursday of 36.8 million bushels included 13.2 million of old crop, though China canceled two loads and still has 41.8 million bushels of previous purchases that are unshipped. Total commitments are on track to meet USDA’s forecast, but shipments lag ahead of the July 6 tariff deadline.
The preliminary report from the CBOT showed futures volume down a third Thursday to 200,713 while open interest fell to 8,355 on July liquidation despite light new fund selling.